This article concerns the November 2024 COP29 climate conference. It is distinct from the COP16 biodiversity conference, which occurred in October-November 2024 and is the subject of a separate Senedd Research article.
Global attention turned to Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024 as the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change got underway. The meeting marked an opportunity for countries to build on the agreements of earlier COPs and facilitate a global transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions through greater financing and enhanced decarbonisation plans. This article looks at what happened during COP29, how it relates to earlier COPs, and Welsh progress towards net zero.
A brief history of climate COPs
Climate COPs have taken place almost every year since 1995. They provide an opportunity for global governments to agree a unified approach to tackling climate change. Climate COPs reflect the scientific consensus that climate change is caused by the release of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere by human activity.
Nine years ago, at COP21, world leaders agreed the Paris Agreement, in what was seen as a landmark moment for international climate cooperation. Its goals included limiting global average temperature rise to “well below 2°C” and an aspiration “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
The Paris Agreement introduced the concept of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs). NDCs are plans that countries must submit every five years (next due in 2025) to demonstrate the domestic actions they are taking to combat climate change.
Last year, COP28 involved a ‘global stocktake’ that found countries were “…not collectively on track towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.” It called for more ambition and better implementation of NDCs to keep warming below 2°C.
Wales is a founding member of the Under2 Coalition, a collection of 177 subnational governments that have committed to reaching net zero by 2050.
New finance and old controversies at COP29
The headline outcome of COP29 was an agreement for developed countries to give $300 billion per year in climate finance to developing countries by 2035. This is a threefold increase compared to the previous goal, but significantly smaller than the $1.3 trillion developing countries had asked for.
The UK Government announced that its next NDC would include a target to reduce 2035 greenhouse gas emissions by 81% compared to 1990 levels. Provisional estimates suggest that 2023 UK emissions were 52.7% lower than 1990 levels.
No agreement was reached on implementing the outcomes of the COP28 ‘global stocktake’.
The buildup to the conference was marked by controversy, as the BBC reported that the COP29 president appeared to be using his position to negotiate new oil and gas deals. Similar claims were made about the COP28 president in 2023.
A group of climate experts, academics, and politicians advocated for reform of COP, arguing that it “simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity.” The conference was also overshadowed by reports that the US is likely to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2025.
Wales’s progress towards net zero
The Welsh Government contributes to the UK’s NDC and Wales has its own statutory emission reduction targets, as established in the Environment (Wales) Act 2016. This Act requires the reduction of Welsh greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, and for Welsh Ministers to lay out policies for decarbonisation accompanying five-year carbon budgets.
The Welsh Government achieved its first carbon budget (2016-2020) and 2020 interim target with an average emission reduction of 27.8%, greater than the 23% goal.
In 2021, the Senedd approved interim 2030 and 2040 emission reduction targets and two carbon budgets covering 2021-2025 (carbon budget 2) and 2026-2030 (carbon budget 3). All emissions targets, announced carbon budgets, and Wales’s emissions to-date are shown in the graph below.
Source – National Atmospheric Emissions for emissions data, Welsh Government for targets and carbon budgets (carbon budget 1 detailed here).
More information about the Welsh Government’s most recent net zero plan can be found in this Senedd Research briefing.
A cross-sector issue
Greenhouse gases are emitted by a wide array of human activities, and so decarbonisation plans cut across many sectors, including: electricity and heat generation, transport, industry, and agriculture. Competence in some of these areas are reserved to the UK Government, including electricity transmissions, distribution, and supply, and industrial development. Other relevant areas are partially or fully devolved to the Welsh Government, whose decarbonisation plans are often integrated into wider programmes, such as:
- The new Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), which is informed by the SFS Carbon Sequestration Evidence Review Panel;
- The Warm Homes Programme, which aims to improve the energy efficiency of residential buildings, and is currently being scrutinised as part of a Senedd Equality and Social Justice Committee inquiry; and
- The National Transport Delivery Plan 2022-2027, which sets out transport decarbonisation targets.
What’s at stake?
Average global surface temperature increased by around 1.1°C between the late 19th and early 21st century. The likely consequences of further warming are set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report.
Both 2022 and 2023 set the record for the hottest year ever recorded in Wales, and Wales’s highest ever recorded temperature of 37.1°C was set on 19 July 2022, in Hawarden, Flintshire.
In Wales, climate change:
- is characterised by a 0.9°C increase in average land temperature, a 2% increase in rainfall between the mid-1970s and 2010s, and an average annual sea level rise of around 1.4mm over the past century;
- could lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and rainfall events, which threaten human life, built infrastructure, wildlife, and agriculture; and
- “will impact the health and wellbeing of the whole population of Wales”, including areas such as nutrition, food security, and population displacement, according to Public Health Wales.
The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) is a statutory five-yearly assessment of the major risks and opportunities from climate change to the UK. CCRA3 was published in 2022 and is accompanied by a detailed discussion of the impacts of climate change in Wales.
Adaptation to future climate change is the responsibility of the Welsh Government. It recently outlined its approach in the Climate Adaptation Strategy for Wales 2024, which was informed by the independent UK Climate Change Committee’s 2023 assessment. Senedd Research previously explored climate adaptation in a 2021 briefing.
In Autumn 2024, Plaid Cymru Members of the Senedd called on the Welsh Government to “put climate justice and global responsibility at the heart of all public policy”, and the Welsh Government issued a written statement committing to “taking climate action at home and showing climate leadership on the global stage.” With Wales experiencing record warmth in both February and May, and exceptional rainfall in November, climate change is likely to remain a significant focus of ongoing Senedd business.
Article by Matthew Sutton, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
